THE MARKET SEA OF CHANGE

In a manner similar to the stock markets of the 70's, this one exhibits narrowing breadth that has supported the indexes in a wide trading range throughout 2015. As markets progress under these narrowing conditions led by just a handful of large cap growth companies, the "structure' becomes more unstable, eventually leading to measurable declines in the major indexes themselves. Lowry Research Corp does an excellent job of measuring the markets shifting sands. For over 80 years they have kept the books on the balance of market supply/demand metrics that demonstrate whether it is a market being accumulated or one that is losing it's grip and headed for a correction. The data shows that while there was plenty of volatility in the market for 2015, the Dow Jones Industrial and the S&P 500 ended the year with relatively mild losses. Many investors might assume that nothing much really happened and kept plowing ahead. Internally though, much has been "happening" over the past year. According to Lowry Research, for the last twelve months the percentage of stocks at or within 2% of their highs has fallen: large-cap from 27.10% to 17.45%, mid-cap from 23.24% to 15.53% and small-cap from 14.38% to 3.33%. The percentage of stocks falling into their own individual bear markets is also climbing, with large cap losses of 20% or more from their highs increasing from 8.87% to 19.81%, mid-caps from 18.06% to 34.36% and small-caps from 39.05% to 61.71%. We see similar evidence of deterioration in our daily run of stock screens with the number making the cut on a fundamental and price trend basis trending lower. Our take away from this is that in all likelihood the BULL market that began in 2009 ended in 2015.  Market trends dictate that we stay defensive in our risk managed ETF and stock programs by holding large cash positions. The ETF program is also holding a position in SPDR Gold Shares.  We stand ready to re-deploy cash back to the market when our market trend metrics indicate a change. As the saying goes-When the typhoon hits it's better to be on shore than out to sea.